克拉克森研究:2019年上半年航运市场总结

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This week, Clarkson Research released the latest shipping market summary report for the first half of 2019. The report carefully reviewed the performance of various sectors of the shipping market in the first half of this year. In the first half of 2019, the average Clarkson Shipping Index increased by 8% compared to last year, slightly higher than the average since the 2009 financial crisis. Some sectors have achieved good performance, but there are still some sectors that need to be improved.

Freight revenue, some progress

The overall performance of the shipping market in the first half of 2019 has improved, but it seems that there is still a way to go from the "all-youth".

The performance of the tanker market was significantly improved compared with a year ago (average income in the first half of the year increased by 80%), but due to seasonal factors, relatively short winter peaks, a large number of new ship delivery and refinery maintenance and repair, etc. The average yield of the tanker for half a year is still lower than the average since 2009.

The bulk carrier market was affected by the demand side impact (especially the iron ore supply contracted by various events) experienced a very difficult first half. Despite the recent recovery in the bulk carrier market, overall the average bulk carrier's revenue is still 22% lower than the same period last year and 21% lower than the average after the 2009 financial crisis.

On the other hand, the average yield of the container ship market in the first half of 2019 was slightly higher than the average after the financial crisis in 2009, and the performance of large container ships was gratifying (9,000 containers of container ships with a three-year lease rental of $36,000/day) ).

The revenue level of the LPG market continued its upward trend and remained at the end of the first half of this year (84,000 cubic meters of liquefied gas ship revenues reached US$70,000/day at the end of June, mainly driven by US and Australian export growth). In the first half of 2019, the average revenue of LPG carriers was still 6% lower than the average after the financial crisis in 2009, but far better than the average income of the same period last year was below the average of 65%.

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2019年上半年滚装船的平均收入仍高于金融危机后的平均水平。邮轮订单仍处于最高水平(约500亿美元)。

离岸市场已经复苏,虽然北海区域平台供应船的收入仍比金融危机后的平均收益低10%,但与去年同期的平均收入相比仍然有所提升,低于35%的平均水平。

车队容量,增长可控

全球船队的运力仍然良好。 2019年上半年的船队运力增长率达到1.9%,低于金融危机以来的平均水平。虽然上半年新船交付量略有增加9%至5100万载重吨,拆船量同比下降45%至1,080万载重吨,但总体而言全球船队容量增长率似乎仍然高涨在可控范围内。就载重吨而言,目前的订单量仅为当前全球船队规模的10%。预计年度船队增长率将达到1.9%,这将是过去20年来的最低增长率。 2019年上半年,新船订单同比下降54%至2500万载重吨,比金融危机以来的平均值低49%。同期,二手船的数量比去年减少了22%,仅为3400万载重吨。低于金融危机以来的平均水平。

航运贸易,感受压力

相比之下,全球海运贸易增长放缓。目前,我们已将2019年全球海运贸易量的增长率从年初的2.2%下调至2.2%(海上吨数为2.5%)。这主要考虑了一系列事件对市场的潜在影响,包括“贸易战”(见“贸易战”航运情报网特别报告),巴西淡水河谷溃坝,澳大利亚飓风,欧佩克减产和中国经济走势。大多数事件是分开控制的,但它们一起会产生叠加效应,特别是影响广泛机构投资者的情绪。在“贸易战”特别报告中,我们指出事件对基线情景中航运市场的负面影响似乎有限(考虑到美国能源出口将促进长途运输需求),但同时我们还提醒一下,我们需要密切关注中国和美国。贸易谈判的进展及其对市场的潜在积极或消极影响。

环境法规,积极响应

在半年度审查报告的上半部分,我们提到航运业需要在环境保护和技术方面做出更多努力。目前,我们计算的相关数据显示,由于2019年安装脱硫设备,世界上约1%的船舶容量将暂停市场。与此同时,我们预计油轮的运力需求市场将在2020年增加3%,主要是考虑到2020年新的硫排放法规引起的潜在石油贸易变化。中国最新的“海洋脱硫装置统计数据”摘要IMO 2020市场影响评估“将于本周五发布。

资料来源:Clarkson Shipping Intelligence